If you’ve talked to a Measure H opponent, you’ve probably heard some version of “Marin voters keep saying no to these tax measures.” It’s worth checking against the data.

The Marin County Office of Education maintains a parcel-tax election history covering every Marin school parcel-tax measure since 2010.^[1] Here’s what it actually shows.

The base rate: 88% pass, median 73.4% Yes

Across the full 16-year record:

• 35 parcel-tax measures placed on Marin ballots since 2010
• 31 passed (~88%)
• 4 failed (~12%)
• Median Yes vote: 73.4%

That’s the Marin baseline. School parcel taxes pass overwhelmingly, and they pass with comfortable supermajorities, not narrow ones. The median 73.4% Yes vote is 6.7 points above the 66.67% threshold — meaning the typical Marin school parcel-tax measure clears two-thirds with ~7 points to spare.

This is the strongest evidence that Marin voters are not anti-school. They’ve approved 31 separate parcel-tax measures across 14 years, in seven different districts, at total dollar magnitudes well above what Measure H is asking.

What the four failures share — and don’t

The four Marin school parcel-tax failures since 2010:

District	Election	Yes %	Asked for	Recovery
Kentfield SD	Nov 2016	57.7%	$1,600 + 5% escalator	Came back March 2018 at $1,498 + 3% escalator → passed at 68.5%
Novato USD	March 2020	55.4%	$376	Came back March 2023 at $251 (renewal-only, no increase) → passed at 83.3%
Tamalpais Union HSD	March 2020	63.7%	$645	Came back November 2020 at $469 → passed at 73.6%
Ross Valley SD	May 2025	62.5%	52¢/sq ft + $95	Coming back June 2026 as Measure H

Three things are worth noting about this list:

Even the failures cleared 55%. No Marin school parcel-tax measure since 2010 has been unpopular. Some have just been short of the supermajority bar. Measure E’s 62.5% in 2025 fits that pattern — it’s a supermajority shortfall, not a community rejection.

The recovery patterns share a structure. All three previously failed districts came back with a smaller ask (a lower base, a lower escalator, or a renewal-only) and passed comfortably. The Kentfield 2016→2018 path is the most direct model: trim the rate and the escalator, try again, win.

RVSD is the structural outlier. The 2025 → 2026 recovery breaks the “trim and retry” template. Measure H asks for a larger dollar amount than what voters rejected eleven months ago. The reason isn’t that the board didn’t read the playbook — it’s that RVSD’s situation doesn’t accommodate the playbook.

Why RVSD can’t follow the recovery template

Kentfield, Novato, and TamUnion all had years to come back with a smaller ask. RVSD has a hard deadline.

The existing parcel tax expires June 30, 2028. Per RVSD’s parcel-tax page, June 2 and November 3, 2026 are “the only statewide election opportunities for renewal or adjustment” before the existing tax expires.^[2] California’s next statewide election after November 2026 is the March 7, 2028 presidential primary, which is technically before expiration but operationally too late to certify, win, and bridge into the FY 2028-29 budget without a multi-month revenue gap.

So RVSD has at most two ballot windows between Measure E’s defeat and the existing tax’s expiration:

1. June 2, 2026 — Measure H
2. November 3, 2026 — last realistic backup if Measure H fails

The Kentfield-style recovery (trim rate from $1,600 to $1,498, drop escalator from 5% to 3%, try again 16 months later) wouldn’t address RVSD’s structural deficit. Per Superintendent Tyler Graff, a CST-suggested $149 increase “wouldn’t resolve any of the district’s budget issues.”^[3] The trim-and-retry option doesn’t exist in a way that matches RVSD’s actual budget hole.

The Godbe polling reinforced this. The poll specifically tested lower-cost variants of Measure H — a smaller increase, a lower escalator — and found they did not improve favorability.^[4] A trim-and-retry strategy that would have worked for Kentfield in 2018 wouldn’t have worked for RVSD in 2026, on the actual numbers.

What the historical record means for your vote

Two takeaways from the Marin record.

Marin voters approve school parcel taxes most of the time, by comfortable margins. That’s the base rate Measure H is operating against. The opposition framing of “voters consistently reject these” doesn’t match the data — 88% of Marin school parcel-tax measures pass.

When Marin voters do reject a measure, they typically support a smaller version on retry. Three of the four historical failures came back smaller and passed easily. RVSD is the exception, not because the board ignored the lesson, but because the structural deficit is too large for a trim-and-retry to close, and the calendar doesn’t allow for a multi-cycle stair-step.

Measure H is RVSD’s main shot at staying in the 88% column. The cost of falling into the other column — given the structural deficit, the August 2028 receivership timeline, and the documented contingency plan — is materially worse than what any of the previous four failed districts faced.

That’s why we recommend a Yes vote on Measure H.

Sources

1. Marin County Office of Education: parcel-tax election history (since 2010) — 35 Marin school parcel-tax measures, 31 passed (~88%), median 73.4% Yes vote, four failures all clearing 55%.

2. RVSD parcel-tax page — frames June 2 and November 3, 2026 as the only statewide election opportunities for renewal or adjustment before the existing tax expires June 30, 2028.

3. Marin IJ (Feb 15, 2026): Graff’s response to CST’s $149 alternative — “wouldn’t resolve any of the district’s budget issues.”

4. Marin IJ (Dec 21, 2025): Godbe Research polling presentation — lower-cost variants did not improve favorability.

← All posts