May 7, 2026

Why a 3% escalator is the right number for Measure H

A small but real piece of the Measure H argument is the 3% annual cost-of-living adjustment — the rate at which the parcel tax grows year over year for the life of the measure. Opponents have raised the escalator as a concern: it compounds, and over a 10-year measure, that compounding adds up.^[1]

Here’s how Measure H’s 3% compares to what other Marin districts have chosen, and why we think 3% is the right number for this measure.

What Measure H’s 3% means in dollar terms

Starting at $1,282 per parcel in fiscal year 2026-27 with a 3% annual escalator beginning FY 2027-28:^[2]

Year	Parcel-tax rate	Cumulative growth
FY 2026-27	$1,282	—
FY 2027-28	$1,320	+$38
FY 2028-29	$1,360	+$78
FY 2029-30	$1,401	+$119
FY 2030-31	$1,443	+$161
FY 2031-32	$1,486	+$204
FY 2032-33	$1,531	+$249
FY 2033-34	$1,576	+$294
FY 2034-35	$1,624	+$342
FY 2035-36	$1,672	+$390

Over the 10-year life of the measure, the rate grows by about $390 per parcel — roughly $39 per year on average. By the final year, the rate is about 30% higher than the starting rate.

This is what 3% compounding looks like in practice. It’s not aggressive. It tracks long-run general inflation closely.

How that compares to other Marin districts

Per the Marin County Office of Education’s parcel-tax summary (Sept 2025), other Marin districts have made meaningfully different choices:^[3]

District	Current escalator	Notes
Ross Valley SD (Measure H)	3%	Matches existing measure escalator
Kentfield SD	3%	Same as RVSD
Reed Union SD	3%	Same as RVSD
San Rafael City Elementary	3%	Same as RVSD
San Rafael City High	3%	Same as RVSD
Tamalpais Union HSD	3%	Same as RVSD
Bolinas-Stinson Union	3%	Same as RVSD
Miller Creek SD	3%	Same as RVSD
Nicasio SD	3%	Same as RVSD
Mill Valley SD	5%	Higher than RVSD; 2026 measure renews at 5%
Larkspur–Corte Madera SD	5%	Higher than RVSD
Lagunitas SD	4% (was 6.5%)	Recently reduced
Novato USD	0%	No escalator
Shoreline USD	0%	No escalator

A few things worth noting:

3% is the Marin median. Nine of the 16 Marin districts with parcel taxes use a 3% escalator. It’s the most common choice and the one Coalition of Sensible Taxpayers has not singled out for criticism.^[4]

Higher escalators get pushback that 3% doesn’t. CST has criticized Mill Valley’s 5% escalator on Measure E 2026, calling it out specifically; CST’s criticism of Measure H is on the dollar amount of the increase, not on the 3% escalator structure.^[4]

No-escalator measures end up needing larger periodic resets. Novato Unified’s $251 Measure A had no escalator and is now being supplemented by Measure G ($249 additional, also with no escalator) — essentially doubling the rate via a separate measure rather than letting the original tax grow with inflation.^[3] The lesson: if you don’t escalate, you have to keep going back to voters with new measures.

Why 3% is the right inflation tracker

The point of an escalator is to preserve the real-dollar value of the tax against inflation. That requires picking a rate that matches what district costs actually grow at.

Long-run CPI has been around 2.5–3% in recent decades. Bay Area CPI has run modestly higher — around 3% — driven by housing costs. Education-specific cost growth has historically run higher than general CPI, driven by health insurance, pension contributions, and Bay Area teacher labor markets.

3% is on the lower end of what would actually keep the tax’s real-dollar value flat. A 5% escalator (Mill Valley, Larkspur-Corte Madera) tries to capture some of the education-specific cost growth above CPI — that’s the basis for MVSD board president Natalie Katz’s defense of the 5% figure: “the actual cost of providing quality education and keeping great teachers and local classrooms has increased at a greater rate than 5%.”^[5]

3% means RVSD’s parcel-tax revenue, in real terms, stays roughly flat or slowly erodes over the 10-year measure. It’s not a real-dollar revenue increase — it’s an inflation tracker.

Why a higher escalator wasn’t the right choice for RVSD

The RVSD board had a real choice here. Mill Valley’s 5% escalator is the same rate Mill Valley has had on its parcel tax for the past 18 years.^[5] The district could have argued — and Anna Marsh’s $600-increase dissent suggests at least one trustee would have supported it — for a higher escalator that better tracked actual cost growth.

The board chose 3% for the same reason it chose $540 instead of $600 or $750 on the base rate: a measure has to pass two-thirds. A 5% escalator, on a measure already taking heat for its dollar increase, would have given opponents an additional concrete number to attack. 3% matches the existing measure’s escalator, matches the Marin median, and matches what district voters have approved every election cycle since 2018.^[2]

It’s the boring, proven choice. That’s the right choice for a measure that needs 66.67% to pass.

What this means for your vote

If you’re a voter who’d prefer no escalator at all, the consequence is that RVSD would have to come back to voters more often, with bigger periodic measures, just to keep up with inflation. The Novato pattern (Measure A in 2009, no escalator; Measure G in 2026 to roughly double the rate) is the alternative model. It’s not obviously better.

If you’re a voter who’s specifically concerned about the compounding effect over 10 years: the total compounding amounts to about $390 over the measure’s life, against roughly $4,000 in cumulative inflation tracking on the base rate. The escalator doesn’t grow the tax in real terms. It just stops the tax from shrinking in real terms.

3% is the right number. That’s why we recommend a Yes vote on Measure H.

Sources

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